Based on a link that @YorkshireTea shared with data from PHS in England, I created visualizations so we can see what's going on with the vaccine and this "Delta" variant.

This is the link: gov.uk/government/publications

I only used the latest report but I am planning on expanding the scope. There is a lot of nuance and definitions that you can read on page 23 of the technical report #21.

Some numbers don't entirely match because of missing ages.

Tagging for visibility: @verretor @drgo @furgar

@verretor @drgo @furgar

In the raw data people could say the unvaxxed affected the most:178k(52%) cases <50 and 183k cases in total.

But when we see the deaths, the picture changes dramatically. Like @YorkshireTea mentioned, you can see 60%(652) of all deaths come from the >50yo group of vaxxed people.

Only 30% from unvaxxed under the same group.

We could conclude that if 390 unvaxxed people died out of the 183k reported cases, there is a 99.78% rate of recovery or 0.22% chance of death

@verretor @drgo @furgar @YorkshireTea

This is a nicer visual for those that hate tables. It just represents the previous table with bars.

One of the narratives at the beginning was that the oldest people should get the experimental injection because of the risk of covid.

We can clearly see the opposite on the data PHS reported. More people are dying from getting it on the mentioned group.

@verretor @drgo @furgar @YorkshireTea

This yet another way to represent the data. We sometimes get the wrong perception of things but putting the numbers side by side you can see the reality.

idk how the case for the vax holds.

Summing up the 3 bars for all ages vaxxed, it's about 163k, just 20k less than the unvaxxed. Summing all deaths too, gives you 783 in total. That's 0.48% vs 0.22% of the unvaxxed across all groups.

@max_1337 @drgo @furgar @YorkshireTea Am I reading this right? The worst group is the one with 2 doses?

@verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea @furgar no. But yes. Old people are more likely to die in general. But if you control for age (ie, compare apples to apples) it pays to be vaxxed

@verretor @drgo @YorkshireTea that’s going to be madness. Remember the chicken study I shared like a month ago? Basically the same thing is happening.

@verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea I do recall. Great reminder of what happens with endemic diseases

@smartbrain @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea this is why you don’t (in perpetuity) vaccinate a population against a disease they won’t have much difficulty fighting naturally.

That of course does not apply to current vaccine strategy. Eventually, all of us old humans (like everyone 20 or 12 and up) will be dead and all the newer humans will have gotten covid as a child and had trivial disease and maintained immunity until they too die.

@drgo @smartbrain @max_1337 @YorkshireTea The new chicken being born today are not immune to the new strains of Marek's disease.

@verretor @max_1337 @smartbrain @YorkshireTea right. But it’s also not a trivial disease (for the chicken).

We would never do this (non-sterilizing vaccination) to all humans in perpetuity for covid for precisely the same reason the lesson of marek disease teaches us.

@drgo @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea all sars 1 vaccine candidates, from all technologies including attenuated virus, ended in ade when they were trying almost a decade ago.

@smartbrain @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea I can’t say I know much about ADE, but my gut says this is mostly hogwash. Something to collect data on, for sure…but certainly not something that they could hide from humanity.

@drgo @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea 8 years ago, in mice and on the original sars coronavirus.

All vaccine candidates resulted in inmunopathy. Ie all vaccine candidates ended in ADE.

journals.plos.org/plosone/arti

@smartbrain @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea this is good example of why sometimes shit that looks like a good idea in a test tube ain’t always a good a idea.

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@drgo @verretor @max_1337 @YorkshireTea took a while but found it

Why ADE happens with delta. It's all about the angle the antibodies attach to the spike.

journalofinfection.com/article

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