1. It’s fairly impossible to define what the volume of the next surge may be. Capacity had increased, but demand is unpredictable. Any answer to this seems like a guess at best.
2. I don’t think there’s a good answer to this either, it’ll obviously depend on how utilized LN is, compared to on-chain txs. I think at best you could look at the current trend, but the tech is new so infrastructure is still not ready for widespread adoption, and thus the trends may not yet be meaningful.