The simple strategy of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into via recurring purchases & HODLing it through a full 4-year cycle sounds risky to some

...but in reality, it has by far the best 4-year risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of any asset class over the past decade 🥇

Just read @anilsaidso’s book & loved it - can definitely recommend it

Anil does a great job at explaining & related concepts in a bitesized form, supported by great visualizations

If you like his Twitter, you’ll love his book: check out either if you haven’t already 👍
---
RT @anilsaidso
My new book is out today!

📙’FEW UNDERSTAND THIS: A Visual Guide to Bitcoin’s Rise’

It’s packed with helpful stories, diagrams & mental mode…
twitter.com/anilsaidso/status/

A simple price-based perspective on the current bull run & correction / consolidation

Touches of the 200-day moving average during bull runs:
- 2013: 2x
- 2017: 1x
- 2021: 0x (so far)

Shows how fast price ran up & why even a correction to ~$38k wouldn't be so abnormal

Previous bull runs were characterized by long-term holders selling into strength over an extended period

This cycle, we haven't even crossed the bull/bear threshold 🦗

Was this all just 1 big prelude? Or have we reached a point where HODLers will not sell any more? 👀

According to this Bull & Bear Index (based on Bitcointalk, Reddit & Twitter), the sentiment was less bearish during this Elon-dip than previous local bottoms

Could mean that:
1) Current sentiment is less bearish
2) Bottom is not in yet
3) Indicator has (selection) bias

During the Elon-dip, 's adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), that quantifies to what extent coins that moved on-chain were at a loss or in profit, reset

Historically, those have been good times to - unless you think we've just hit an overall market cycle top

The market is pretty antsy & price could dip again to shake out more weak hands

However, if you have conviction in 's long-term prospects & realize that recent events were just FUD, there is only one thing you can do...

...HODL on 🤘🦍

is now trading above $50k again & appears to cautiously look upwards again

With the current anxious state of the market, it is possible we'll see some resistance around $53k-$56k from short-term holders that will consider selling their at their break even point

Yesterday, we saw the largest liquid supply growth that we have seen so far during this 🐂 run

Compared to the liquid supply growth during the early bull market phase, it is still very modest, suggesting that has been HODLed with conviction so far this cycle 💪

The price is trading below @woonomic's NVT Price model

If we zoom out, these have historically been great buying opportunities - except right after a blow-off top

Unless you think that we have just hit an overall market cycle peak, this might be a good time to 👀

Taproot activation update 🥕🟩

10 pools that represent 82.53% of the hash rate have now signaled at least 1 block, suggesting they are at least working on it

Need to get this >90% with consistency to get Taproot activated. Probably not this period, but maybe next..? 👀

The current Price Temperature of 2.93 (based on last night's close) is similar to the 🌡️ it reached during the first big dip of the 2017 bull market

This cycle's 1st run-up started earlier than that in 2017, but its consolidation is taking longer 🥱

I have become impressed by two smart, hard-working young (19 & 20 years old) guys that are putting out high quality market related (both on-chain & fundamental analysis) content here on Twitter

Consider following @WClementeIII & @btcization if you don't already 🤘

This FUD campaign is pretty effective: seeing obituary-like articles pop up & fear in new market participants

Yesterday's net exchange inflows & short-term holders selling at a loss also haven't been this high since March 2020

It might take a bit to regain momentum 🤷‍♂️

Some pointed out that the market cap of has grown during this consolidation, alleviating some of this stablecoin growth

That is true, but the market cap of all stablecoins has grown (much) faster than that of

There is simply a lot more money slushing around 👀

Show thread

The price may be dipping, but the amount of dry powder that is waiting on the sidelines to step in continues to grow 👀

The larger these stablecoin reserves are on exchanges, the easier it will be for to climb out of the dip when upwards momentum returns

Funding went more negative after the last mini-dip a few hours ago

Looks like traders are a bit anxious right now

IMO it would be ideal if funding stays low and spot buyers start stepping in

..which is exactly what appears to be happening based on exchange outflows 👀

9/9 If anything, this crash flushed out even more leverage

The futures perpetual funding rate briefly even went negative, which means that there was a premium on going long over the past few hours

This Elon-FUD-crash may be a good buy the dip opportunity (via spot) 👀

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8/9 It is good to realize that those tweets were zoomed in on intra-day charts

If we zoom out & look at the bigger picture, we see that in comparison to late last year's run-up, most long-term holders are not parting with their coins

So far, no concern overall IMO

Show thread

5/9 The answer probably lies in Tesla being subsidized by parties targeting environmental sustainability, as pointed out by @PrestonPysh

's environmental impact is massively understood, particularly by people in the legacy financial system

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RT @PrestonPysh
@elonmusk Uh oh. Did someone get yelled at by the government who pays you massive subsidies so you can stay in business each quarter?
twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status

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