supply depletion of all exchanges slowed down since Nov 4th & is increasing since Apr 19th

..but if you zoom in, you see that supply depletion of spot exchanges has accelerated since Dec 8th πŸ”₯

Increasing derivative exchanges reserves has skewed the overall picture πŸ‘€

It is good to note that although the current intra-day price movement itself looks pretty decent, we're not necessarily in the clear yet:
- 4 hours ago, 22.8k were deposited on exchanges
- Funding went up during this last dip, incentivizing large players to liquidate longs

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I am watching this chart in awe right now 😲

Over the past day, the amount of that appear to be capitulated at a loss is actually *increasing* - even after Elon tweeted that they haven't sold anything and price is bouncing back a bit already

This is just silly.. πŸ˜‚

The fund of Michael Burry (who was played by Christian Bale in the movie The Big Short) had gone short Tesla $TSLA with 40% of their portfolio πŸ‘€
---
RT @marketplunger1
Michael Burry's latest 13F is out!

Here's a list of all his new quarterly buys.

Some standouts:

- Bought Scorpio $STNG
- Bought $FB Calls (11% of port)
- Bought $CVS calls/equity (cc: @Post_Market)
- $TSLA Put is ~40% of portfolio
- Increased exposure to energy /…
twitter.com/marketplunger1/sta

The story of this dip in 4 charts ⛓️

Most of the on-chain volume came from short-term holders that ended up capitulating at a loss πŸͺ¦

Meanwhile, long-term holders & miners are stacking sats at an increasing pace, clearly buying the dip πŸ’ͺ

3/3 Current BPT Band values 🌑️

BPT:
- BPT0: $11,954 (+0.25%/d)
- BPT2: $37,516 (+0.23%/d)
- BPT6: $88,642 (+0.23%/d)
- BPT8: $114,205 (+0.23%/d)

BPT-M2:
- BPT0: $13,807 (+0.22%/d)
- BPT2: $38,513 (+0.21%/d)
- BPT6: $87,925 (+0.21%/d)
- BPT8: $112,632 (+0.21%/d)

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2/3 M2 inflation corrected version (BPT-M2):
- BPT-M2 weekly change: -1.09 (-29.4%)
- BPT-M2 difference with BPT: -0.06 (-2.16%)

The monetary inflation corrected BPT version cooled off even more than the regular version ❄️

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1/3 Weekly Price Temperature (BPT) update

Weekly changes:
- Price: $-12.3k (-21%)
- BPT: -1.06 (-28.4%)

Price has cooled off to a 🌑️ not seen before in 2021 - a great opportunity for those that remain bullish πŸ‚

🧡 with all charts, incl. M2 corrected versions

2/2 If the market has an anxious flash crash based on this irrational chain of events, it is almost by definition a great chance to

This is all just "weak hands to strong hands" - except the weak hands in this case appear to belong to the richest man in the world

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1/2 The irony of this interaction being with someone that has been on a FUD campaign for years is palpable

E.g., search for his "Fermions Flows" model that predicted a bear market with a $2k bottom in 2021 πŸ˜‚

Or scroll through the headlines of his blog: cryptowhalex.medium.com

The simple strategy of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into via recurring purchases & HODLing it through a full 4-year cycle sounds risky to some

...but in reality, it has by far the best 4-year risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of any asset class over the past decade πŸ₯‡

A simple price-based perspective on the current bull run & correction / consolidation

Touches of the 200-day moving average during bull runs:
- 2013: 2x
- 2017: 1x
- 2021: 0x (so far)

Shows how fast price ran up & why even a correction to ~$38k wouldn't be so abnormal

Previous bull runs were characterized by long-term holders selling into strength over an extended period

This cycle, we haven't even crossed the bull/bear threshold πŸ¦—

Was this all just 1 big prelude? Or have we reached a point where HODLers will not sell any more? πŸ‘€

According to this Bull & Bear Index (based on Bitcointalk, Reddit & Twitter), the sentiment was less bearish during this Elon-dip than previous local bottoms

Could mean that:
1) Current sentiment is less bearish
2) Bottom is not in yet
3) Indicator has (selection) bias

During the Elon-dip, 's adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), that quantifies to what extent coins that moved on-chain were at a loss or in profit, reset

Historically, those have been good times to - unless you think we've just hit an overall market cycle top

The market is pretty antsy & price could dip again to shake out more weak hands

However, if you have conviction in 's long-term prospects & realize that recent events were just FUD, there is only one thing you can do...

...HODL on 🀘🦍

is now trading above $50k again & appears to cautiously look upwards again

With the current anxious state of the market, it is possible we'll see some resistance around $53k-$56k from short-term holders that will consider selling their at their break even point

Yesterday, we saw the largest liquid supply growth that we have seen so far during this πŸ‚ run

Compared to the liquid supply growth during the early bull market phase, it is still very modest, suggesting that has been HODLed with conviction so far this cycle πŸ’ͺ

The price is trading below @woonomic's NVT Price model

If we zoom out, these have historically been great buying opportunities - except right after a blow-off top

Unless you think that we have just hit an overall market cycle peak, this might be a good time to πŸ‘€

Taproot activation update πŸ₯•πŸŸ©

10 pools that represent 82.53% of the hash rate have now signaled at least 1 block, suggesting they are at least working on it

Need to get this >90% with consistency to get Taproot activated. Probably not this period, but maybe next..? πŸ‘€

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