1/10 @btconometrics published a new critique on @100trillionUSD’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) & S2F Cross Asset (S2FX) models today, underlining the statistical flaws in both models

Time for a (hopefully simplifying) summary 🧵

btconometrics-84377.medium.com

2/10 He sees three primary components to the underlying theory:

1) S2F is a surrogate of privacy -> undisputed

2) S2F causes the price rise -> disputed

3) S2F ratio can be used to estimate estimate the future price [in a statistically valid way] -> disputed

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LMAO off course this was meant to say that S2F is a surrogate of scarcity, not privacy 🤣

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