Dilutionproof @[email protected]

This 🧵 contains references to my #Bitcoin related content, which I will keep extending over time - so it is basically my own Proof-of-Work time chain ⛓️

Click on "show this thread" & have fun! 👇

Today I realized that @WClementeIII & @woonomic's Liquid Supply Ratio divides illiquid supply by liquid supply (🟪) & the version I shared yesterday divides illiquid supply by circulating supply (🟩)

Better to rename the latter Illiquid Supply Percentage to avoid confusion ➗

Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply Ratio, a metric inspired by @WClementeIII & @woonomic's Illiquid Supply Ratio

Definition: LTH- / Circulating Supply

Examples:

1) Shows that LTH sell against market strength & buy @ weakness

2) Compare historical relative LTH #bitcoin possession

2/2 If we look at the inverse (liquid supply ratio), we see that with each halving, its growth slows down

As supply issuance slows & #bitcoin gets more scarce, holders appear to be getting less inclined to sell 👀

Imagine understanding this & still being long-term bearish 😅

1/2 Looking at the Illiquid Supply Ratio that @WClementeIII & @woonomic recently introduced, which is easy-peasy with @glassnode's new work bench

2 observations:

1) Do halvings trigger coins moving to stronger hands? 🤔

2) Did the Illiquid Supply Ratio bottom this bear cycle?

Final results: bullish on all timeframes 🐂

I find the polarity on the yearly timeframe interesting; apparently (a bit) more respondents are convinced that the #bitcoin price will go down over the next year than over the next month

Thanks to everyone that participated! 🙏
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RT @dilutionproof
1/3 Monthly #bitcoin market sentiment poll 📊

Please answer all 3 (weekly / monthly / yearly) questions in this short 🧵

RT to improve reach =…
https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1421082550840307713

By highlighting the periods with similar or more extreme relative liquid supply decreases compared to current values (the 🟩 fields), we really get to see how unique the current trend is and what usually happens to the #bitcoin price after a supply squeeze of this magnitude 👀

Interpretation: the 2020 liquid supply decreases weren't as intense as those in prior cycles but lasted longer & were therefore more consistent

The May 2021 liquid supply increase also wasn't as intense as those in prior cycles, but is a bit similar to the 2017 mid-cycle fractal

Toying around with @glassnode's new workbench, I created a supply-adjusted liquid supply change

⬜️: liquid supply change
🟩: supply-adjusted liquid supply change

Adjusting for circulating supply is helpful in comparing the magnitude of current & historical liquid supply changes

3/3 Third question: Do you expect the #Bitcoin price to generally go down, sideways or up over the next YEAR?

2/3 Second question: Do you expect the #bitcoin price to generally go down, sideways or up over the next MONTH?

1/3 Monthly #bitcoin market sentiment poll 📊

Please answer all 3 (weekly / monthly / yearly) questions in this short 🧵

RT to improve reach = 🙏

First question: Do you expect the #bitcoin price to generally go down, sideways or up over the next WEEK?

After a #bitcoin-driven 🐂 market (🟩) that was followed by a speculative (altcoin & leverage) & euphoric period (🟥), we're now in a phase where stablecoin reserves are gradually flowing back into #bitcoin (🟧)

A healthy development IMO 👀

There is a lot of talk about the #bitcoin blockchain being a ghost town, but exchanges are feeling the cold shoulder as well, as the 7-day moving average of the total exchange transaction fees hits a low not seen since January 2020

#Bitcoin is now trading around the top of the ~$30k-$40k zone where almost 20% of its supply last moved

Will its next move be a pullback to the middle of this range, or make a jump to the next on-chain volume zone?

Over the last year, there were only a handful of periods with a larger liquid #bitcoin supply decrease than the one that we saw yesterday

There appear to be some *massive* (~30k #BTC) exchange net flows ongoing right now, mostly at @Coinbase

Always need to be a cautious because the can be internal flows or data errors, but the fact that they are visible in both @glassnode & @cryptoquant_com data is interesting 👀

Welcome back, volatility! 🥳

Will the BPT2 (#Bitcoin Price Temperature = 2) Band (currently $40,693) act as resistance again on the way back up? 👀

We sure got that volatility! 🦍
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RT @dilutionproof
#bitcoin just had a +$3k intraday move, but the futures markets remain short

This will likely go down as a great setup for a short-squeeze by the 🐂, or as an important 🐻 clampdown of a relief rally

Either way, looks like we'll be seeing some volatility over the next week 👀
https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1417920384574296067

Fantastic 🧵 by @btcization on what happened to the #bitcoin price today
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RT @btcization
Yesterday #Bitcoin pumped thousands of dollars within hours after weeks of sideways price action, and many might be wondering, why?

Here's a thread on derivatives, naked shorting, and $BTC accumulation

🧵
https://twitter.com/BTCization/status/1419650834275647488

3/3 Current BPT Band values

BPT:
- BPT0: $13,528 (+0.17%/d)
- BPT2: $40,594 (+0.1%/d)
- BPT6: $94,726 (+0.08%/d)
- BPT8: $121,793 (+0.08%/d)

BPT-M2:
- BPT0: $15,339 (+0.14%/d)
- BPT2: $41,241 (+0.09%/d)
- BPT6: $93,044 (+0.07%/d)
- BPT8: $118,946 (+0.06%/d)