@christinabahk After the second protest, I don't see how Xi doesn't roll in there hard. Just waiting for the next shoe to drop.

@TallTim @christinabahk

No chance of that. They've already backed down with "postponement", they will just let it sit until it's not in focus any more. Hong Kong is not going to magically fall out of China's grasp.

The part of the story that always made me cynical is, CCP agents have already been able to just extract people from HK at will - see the case of the bookseller from a few years ago. This bill is hugely important symbolically, but perhaps not practically (except in finance?).

@waxwing @christinabahk I disagree only because of how it looks publicly. The protests forced the HK administration to back down, but Beijing won't be so lenient. The world is watching, and if Xi looks weak, it undermines their projection of power like any other nation. My guess is Xi is hardline enough to ignore anything but what his eventual goal is - HK under his thumb, decisively and for everyone to see.

@TallTim @waxwing eventually HK will be absorbed into the mainland as that's the agreement, but this is about 28 years early. To be honest, mainland China is economically and infrastructure wise pretty close to ready, vs 1997 when they were far off from it.

@TallTim @waxwing The protests have effectively made Hong Kong ground zero in the US-China trade war. The conspiracy in me says that the mini-CIA coordinated the protests

@christinabahk @waxwing I don't discount external factors, just that the public facing view here makes it seem that Xi has very few options if he wants to seem like he's in control.

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