#Bitcoin #ta Small update, my upper target was breached, so the next one is 11600. It gets a bit "thin" up here, as price hasn't been up in this range for very long. This implies that further moves could be quite impressive. Grinding higher, looks good on the Daily and longer term charts. I'll update if anything changes.
@TallTim look up alessio rastani’s latest on the bear mkt rally hypothesis.. would be interesting to know what you think
@vbhide Sure, I'm watching his video now. Some notes:
1) He quotes a sentiment indicator that is a proprietary model. Its noisy as hell, which tells me its based on price data with little smoothing. I have sincere doubts about the efficiency of such models.
2) He then quotes posts about people saying we've bottomed. Contrarianism doesn't mean what is used to. People are so connected now that finding an isolated group is nearly impossible. Traders are bullish because price is. So what?
3) The move is parabolic on the Daily. Yes, it looks like it is. Its also possible that we have a retrenchment and then we continue. Looking at the all time high peak and then assuming we fall apart just because we've started to go higher again is foolish to me.
He means well, but I think he's looking so hard for a bearish view that he's manufactured one.
Even if we gave up the recent advance and went to 8500 - 9000, we'd still be in a longer term uptrend.
@vbhide Oh, and he drags out the 2014 comparison, which I think is not a good idea. The length of time it took to bottom there isn't going to be repeated exactly every time. But people pull out that example when they want a bear case.
We could wedge out and plateau for a while, give some back and start to grind higher again. I've personally witnessed many rallies in Bitcoin, and they usually start with a bang, like this one.
@vbhide One more thing, he's a proponent of Elliott Wave theory.
EW theory is a backfitting exercise. Get your wave count wrong? Oopsie, redo your wave count.
It is not a predictive tool, and he bases his analysis on a failed "wave". Well, its very possible he could be wrong.
Prechter, the father of EW theory was famous for trying to short the indexes and he got slaughtered. Nobody likes mentioning that failure.
@TallTim thanks for the comments! Yeah i suppose he knew he was forcing it too, was probably trying to steelman the bear case because he’s otherwise bullish.. will tell you when i go through the follow up video where he’s planning to state which side he’s on
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