1/ My Thoughts on Macro

Over the last few weeks there has been lots of discussion around things like YCC, real rates, repo market, steepening yield curve, etc. IMO, Many people are getting stuck in the weeds and missing the big picture.

2/ Neither you or me can accurately predict short term market movements over days, weeks, or even months. However, we can accurately predict long term trends.

In today’s world, money is debt. Debt is everywhere and everyone is incentivized to get into as much debt as possible.

3/ We must continue to grow the amount of debt otherwise, if the total debt (money) begins shrinking, we enter into a sharp deflationary spiral.

4/ If we begin creeping into these deflationary spirals (March 2020), the federal reserve and the government will do whatever it takes to stop it. This includes running massive deficits like we saw in 2020 and the Fed basically printing the money to finance those deficits.

5/ In short, the amount of money (debt) in a debt based monetary system, must always be growing otherwise there is pain. And if the pain lasts too long, the entire financial system would completely implode.

6/ Once you understand that the amount of money in the system will grow forever, it makes sense to store your wealth in the only truly scarce monetary good, .

Whether markets are slowly going up, or crashing down, Bitcoin is the safe way to store wealth through time.


7/ To cut out the short term noise and better understand the actual long term implications of a debt based monetary system, you should read this by @JeffBooth.


8/ So stop worrying or studying macro. Use little or no leverage and focus on better honing your craft that enables you to stack as many sats as possible.

Great advice, and amazing timing for me personally! 100% agree.

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